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Face it Linux, Most Netbooks Will Sell Windows 7

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by

Malcolm Bastien
in

And they will sell well.


Ubuntu Inside
Image by Kordite via Flickr

People all over the place are kidding themselves.  One of which include Brian Proffitt.  I tried to write a comment in response to his article talking about Linux’s competitiveness on Netbooks given that Windows 7 can run on netbooks (thanks for turning off comments on your blog but leaving the comment form live by the way) but resorted to doing a full post instead.  With this news that Windows 7 will run on netbooks, people are concentrating on all the wrong ideas, and doing absolutely nothing helpful to aid in the real future of Linux on the netbook.

One of Brian’s points is this:

“..cost will be the big factor in how well each OS  succeeds… the financial headlines and their own accounting books will quickly convince them that the biggest profit margin is the way to go.”

There’s two big pain points I have with this quote.

Why A Free OS Won’t Sell – You Still Have To Pay

The first excerpt completely takes a stake to not only what people in the Free Software Foundation preach, but to Linux adoption in general of the past 3 years.  End users don’t give a crap about cost (thanks to the topic being specifically netbooks we don’t need to concern ourselves with corporate or enterprise Linux).  Telling people how great Linux is because it’s free [as in beer] is the worst way to convert computer users, its never really worked.  It’s also impossible to convince them when what they are buying is a bundle. Getting people to base a $300+ decision on “this one costs $40 less” when they’ve never used Linux before is a horrible idea.  It hasn’t worked this far, netbooks won’t be any different.

Companies Won’t Look at Profit Margins, They’ll Look at Profit

Bundling Linux with netbooks will save manufacturers a couple bucks a shot. Great.  They’ll need that savings when nobody buys their product. Like my point above, buying a new netbook is not the right time to get people to use Linux for the first time.  If the laptop next to you is selling with Windows 7, spending your $300 on a slightly cheaper system with “this Linux thing” is a riskier purchase.  But that doesn’t even consider the elephant in the room: Microsoft advertising department.

Microsoft Will SELL Windows 7 on Netbooks

Microsoft won’t only put windows 7 on netbooks and then put them into stores.  If Microsoft thinks Linux on netbooks is catching on with consumers, what’s stopping them from investing millions into advertising the Windows 7 + netbooks combo?

That powerful campaign to sell by Microsoft kills the argument about companies caring about profit margin in the end, and that’s because there’s going to be more profit to be made from a product that sells.

Linux Finally Has Focus, Leave it Alone!

Didn’t we all just realize a little while ago that arguments based on price don’t convert?  And when that happened, emphasis was put into investing on important things like user interface and design, product quality etc… Let’s not start a discussion on how the netbook wars will be played out any differently using this old strategy.

Let’s just charge marginally more for Linux systems than Windows, and then say it’s “Like OS X”.

If you have any thoughts on this at all, whether I’m right, or whether you think I’m full of crap, let me know by leaving a comment.

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5 responses to “Face it Linux, Most Netbooks Will Sell Windows 7”

  1. eagle Avatar
    eagle

    I am hearing talk about sub $100 netbooks in 2009. If true. do you still think "this one costs $40 less" will not play a part in these purchasing decisions?

    Unless Microsoft starts paying people to use it, Linux will continue to draw users from Windows operating systems. It is simply a better operating system. I agree the journalists that use netbook sales as some horse-race between Linux and Windows are being silly, for the sake of drawing-in readers. This is not – and never has been – an all or nothing race, and neither operating system can destroy the other one. Yet, so long as computer users have the ability to choose between restrictive and unrestrictive operating systems, they win. In 2007, we saw users have that ability to use a complete desktop solution using Linux, so pop the champagne.

    Reply
  2. Malcolm Bastien Avatar
    Malcolm Bastien

    I agree with you eagle. Linux has being doing good incrementally growing, and I think focusing on quality is the way to continue to grow. And having Linux there in the stores is still an unbelievable success looking back from 3 years ago, but it doesn't mean Linux magically wins now. Now with more mainstream exposure is the time to work harder at the *right* kind of Linux marketing.

    If it come down to sub $100 netbooks I think it will help Linux even more. The people who have already made up their minds will continue to use OS X or Windows, but the huge opportunity will be the people on the fence. Not that Linux will trick them into buying it, but one possibility is that the $100 purchase will be all they need, batteries included. They'll get the netbook, the OS, the Office suite, you name it. If they need to pay $300 more in software on top of a $100 device, it might turn them off. That theory of course doesn't work if everything comes off the cloud for free though.

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  4. Barrell Avatar
    Barrell

    Before discussing the sales of Linux netbooks you have to think about one thing. It is sold to people. And human is always as lazy as the circumstances allows. According to this fact, most people will buy Windows platform, because they know it and they have to learn nothing.Those few who will buy the Linux version are divided to three sorts :1) previous Linux users – 30%2) owners of Windows platform trying to learn something else – 10%3) cheeky monkeys who buy cheaper product and install pirate version of Windows – 60%Of course the numbers are made up by me, but you can get the picture.

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  5. Malcolm Bastien Avatar
    Malcolm Bastien

    I can see where you're coming from. I think if 10% of the people buying netbooks were buying Linux because they actually wanted to try it, that would be awesome! But that number is more likely to be something like 3%-4%.And considering that you can't install windows by CD on a netbook, I doubt so many people would buy a Linux based netbook and even *be able* to switch.Fun stuff to think about though, since before there has never really been a popular well known “Linux machine” like there has been with the new dells and netbooks.

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